What a creator's launch history does and does not tell you
Every launch our recorder captures carries a count of how many tokens that same creator address launched before. In a 4,376-launch cohort observed 2026-09-03 to 2026-09-09, that count tracked graduation strongly on one venue, weakly on another, and backwards on a third. The direction depends on where the token launched.
The pooled numbers
Grouping every launch in the cohort by the creator's prior launch count gives a clean downward slope. Graduation here means the token met its own venue's bonding-curve completion condition.
| Creator's prior launches | Launches | Graduated | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| First launch | 2,567 | 201 | 7.8% |
| 2 to 4 | 329 | 19 | 5.8% |
| 5 to 19 | 254 | 10 | 3.9% |
| 20 to 99 | 134 | 1 | 0.7% |
| 100 or more | 1,092 | 1 | 0.1% |
Read alone, that table says a creator on their hundredth token is roughly eighty times less likely to graduate than a first-time creator. That reading is too strong, and the reason is worth showing.
Splitting by venue changes the answer
Every one of the 1,092 launches in the highest bucket came from a single venue. A pooled table that mixes venues will therefore attribute a venue's characteristics to creator history. Recomputing inside each venue separates the two:
| Venue | First launch | 2 to 19 prior | 20 or more prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| doppler | 10.5% (n=229) | 1.2% (n=81) | 0.2% (n=1,179) |
| pools.trade | 14.9% (n=747) | 30.8% (n=78) | no launches recorded |
| v4-hookless | 7% (n=659) | 2.7% (n=113) | 0% (n=23) |
On doppler the slope holds and is steep. On v4-hookless it holds more gently. On pools.trade it inverts: creators with a handful of prior launches graduated at 30.8%, well above the 14.9% of first-timers, though on only 78 launches, which is a small base.
What we think is happening
High prior-launch counts are dominated by automated deployers that mint tokens continuously. Those addresses generate enormous launch volume and almost never produce a token that completes its curve, which drags the high buckets down wherever they are present. A creator with five or ten prior launches is a different population: often someone iterating deliberately rather than a script. Pooling those two populations into one "experienced creator" bucket hides the distinction.
We have not established causation in either direction. Prior launch count is observable before you buy, which makes it useful as a filter input, but it is a proxy for deployer type rather than a measure of skill or intent.
Using this when you are looking at a token
- Check the count, then check the venue. A high prior-launch count means something different on an automated-deployer venue than on a curated one.
- Treat very high counts as a deployer signature. Hundreds of prior launches from one address usually indicates a minting script, not a team.
- Do not read graduation as safety. Graduation is a venue's own liquidity milestone. It is not an audit, a lock, or evidence that you can sell.
How we measured it
The cohort is every launch row created at or before the most recent observed launch minus 24 hours, so every token had a full day of possible observation. Prior launch count is the recorder's creator-history counter at the time the launch was captured. Graduation is the venue's own reported completion flag. Figures come from a frozen snapshot, not a live query, and the underlying database keeps growing; the open snapshot on our data page is the exact data behind every number here.
Limits: the recorder covers supported launch and pool detectors rather than every launch on every chain, creator-history counts only launches this recorder saw, and graduation thresholds are set by each venue and are not comparable across them.
Common questions
- Should I avoid tokens from creators who launched many coins before?
- In this cohort, launches from creators with 20 or more prior launches graduated at 0.2% on doppler against 10.5% for first-time creators. That is a large gap, but it did not hold on every venue, and graduation is not a safety measure. Treat prior launch count as one input, not a rule.
- How can I see how many tokens a creator has launched?
- The deployer address appears in the token's creation transaction on any block explorer. Listing the other contracts that address deployed gives you the count. Our token pages surface it where the recorder has it.
- Does graduating mean a token is safe?
- No. Graduation means a token met its launch venue's bonding-curve completion condition. It says nothing about contract permissions, liquidity locks, or whether a sell route will exist later.
Keep reading
Nothing here is financial advice. Meme coins are high risk and most lose value. Read the full risk disclosure before trading.